Category: Stocks / Bonds

Risk Warning: Very High Probability of Decline in Capital Markets
15. 7. 2024 No Responses

Risk Warning: Very High Probability of Decline in Capital Markets

As has been my standard since September 1998, I again publicly warn in advance of the increased risk of a decline in capital markets. – Generally, stocks are overpriced again (especially in tech) – Valuation of shares not corresponding to...
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Risk Warning: Low Probability of Attractive Return vs. High Probability of Decline in Capital Markets
28. 12. 2023 No Responses

Risk Warning: Low Probability of Attractive Return vs. High Probability of Decline in Capital Markets

As has been my standard since September 1998, I again publicly warn in advance of the increased risk of a decline in capital markets. And now such a situation has come again. What are the current reasons? Goldman Sachs recently...
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Aon to Buy NFP for $13.4 Billion
20. 12. 2023 No Responses

Aon to Buy NFP for $13.4 Billion

Aon said it has signed an agreement to acquire NFP—a middle market property and casualty broker—for about $13.4 billion in cash and stock. “The acquisition of NFP expands Aon’s presence in the large and fast-growing middle-market segment, with capabili...
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Moody’s Cuts USA’s Aaa Rating Outlook To ‘Negative’
10. 11. 2023 No Responses

Moody’s Cuts USA’s Aaa Rating Outlook To ‘Negative’

After a disastrous 30Y bond auction this week, a collapse in Treasury market liquidity, and an accelerating rise in the market’s perception of the United States’ credit risk, Moody’s has just cut its outlook on US credit ratings to negative ...
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SoftBank’s Arm IPO Valued at $54.5 Billion
13. 9. 2023 No Responses

SoftBank’s Arm IPO Valued at $54.5 Billion

Arm Holdings’s Nasdaq debut in short: SoftBank plans to sell only 9% of Arm’s shares, and will pledge out a 75% stake for margin loans once the stock debuts. As such, Arm’s tiny float of just 9% is an extreme...
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Risk Warning: Increased Risk of Decline in Capital Markets
5. 8. 2023 No Responses

Risk Warning: Increased Risk of Decline in Capital Markets

As has been my standard since September 1998, I publicly warn in advance of the increased risk of a decline in capital markets. And now this situation has come again. What are the current reasons? 1. Stocks in general are...
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Hedge Funds Are Record Short Bonds
30. 1. 2023 No Responses

Hedge Funds Are Record Short Bonds

  2023 started with a buying-panic in bonds (approaching their best start to a year in over 30 years at one point) as confidence grew about The Fed’s terminal rate (not as high as some feared) and a soft landing...
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US Debt-Servicing Projection Costs Skyrocket: $1.4 Trillion In Interest Payments On Deck
4. 11. 2022 No Responses

US Debt-Servicing Projection Costs Skyrocket: $1.4 Trillion In Interest Payments On Deck

If the current 4.5% average yield curve rate propagates to all $31 trillion worth of debt, we are looking at $1.4 trillion per year just in interest payments. This would be 29% of the 2022 FY total Federal tax receipt....
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Delisting Risk for Chinese Stocks: Regulators Reach Audit Agreement
29. 8. 2022 No Responses

Delisting Risk for Chinese Stocks: Regulators Reach Audit Agreement

The PCAOB said it planned to have inspectors on the ground in China by mid-September, and make a determination in December on whether China was still obstructing access to audit information. In late 2020, the U.S. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act be...
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Retail broker Robinhood cutting workforce by 23%
2. 8. 2022 No Responses

Retail broker Robinhood cutting workforce by 23%

Retail broker Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said Tuesday in a press release that the broker fintech company will reduce its workforce by approximately 23%. The layoffs will be primarily in operations, marketing and program management. In the release, Tenev blamed...
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ECB Will Buy Italian, Greek Bonds Using Proceeds From German, French Bonds To Avoid Crash
29. 6. 2022 No Responses

ECB Will Buy Italian, Greek Bonds Using Proceeds From German, French Bonds To Avoid Crash

Not that long ago analysts and media joked that the ECB’s cunning “market fragmentation” plan – which became critical after Italian bonds crashed when markets realized that QT is not, in fact, QE and without the ECB backstopping worthle...
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Russia Will Pay Its Foreign Debts in Rubles
24. 6. 2022 No Responses

Russia Will Pay Its Foreign Debts in Rubles

On June 23, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the payment of foreign currency debt in rubles. Roughly speaking, transactions will be made through a ruble account at the domestic market rate. Payment of such debt on the...
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ECB Emergency Meeting Creates Emergency
22. 6. 2022 No Responses

ECB Emergency Meeting Creates Emergency

Were it not for the ECB calling an emergency meeting last Thursday, most market participants would not have realized there was an emergency in the bond market. Apparently, the sharp rise in yields on Italian bonds after the ECB stopped buying...
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American Investors Have Lost $20 Trillion Since The Start Of 2022
16. 5. 2022 No Responses

American Investors Have Lost $20 Trillion Since The Start Of 2022

Since the start of the year, the S&P 500 Index is down 18%, the Nasdaq 100 has lost 27% and a Bloomberg index of cryptocurrencies has plunged 48%. That all amounts to “a wealth shock that is set to drag...
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Outgoing Fed Vice Chair Quietly Covered Up Suspicious Trades Made During March 2020 Market Rout
9. 1. 2022 No Responses

Outgoing Fed Vice Chair Quietly Covered Up Suspicious Trades Made During March 2020 Market Rout

Several months have passed since FOMC members Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan abandoned their posts following a trading scandal that raised questions about senior Fed officials. Now, Richard Clarida, who is already on...
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