The Probability of a Stocks and Some Commodities Markets Crash in 2021: 97% (0.97)

I publicly predicted market crashes: October 1998, spring 2000 dot .com bubble, 2008 MBS scam/crisis, spring 2020 market meltdown.

Now I publicly predict the heavy market crash of 2021. I will publish the exact timing just in tight advance (as free public service).

Some charts to consider:

All major stock indices are trading at record highs. And valuations have never been more stretched. Market Cap to GDP (the famed “Buffet Indicator”) has never been higher:

It has never cost the ‘average’ American more hours worked to “buy” the stock market… (1220 hours to buy The Dow indice, against an average of 225 hours from 1964 to 1994):


And SPX to sales